Public journal

Every trade plan we publish, with its result. Entries are hashed when published, so they cannot be edited afterwards.

On the free plan, new entries appear 24 hours after publication.

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Calibration of the history figure

Too few events so far

Statistics use cases from 1 January 2023: "all" means "since 2023". Earlier years behaved differently.
Journal results use a fee of 0.14% per round trip, with no slippage and no funding. The backtest behind a timed rule assumes about 0.34% per round trip plus funding, so the two figures are not directly comparable.
The exit time of a trade is the start of the hourly candle where a stop or target was hit, and the end of the candle for a time stop.
For the Upbit short rule every plan carries the same history figure, taken from the backtest, until it is recomputed from the realised trades. It does not change with each new trade.
Calibration compares the history figure of each plan with the share of its closed trades that ended in profit. Plans without such a figure are left out.

How history guesses new events

Before each event we record what history said, then compare it with what happened. Close to 50% is what a good description of the past looks like, not a sign of a trading edge.

Too few events so far

The forecast check covers every published event, not only those with a plan. Before the event, we record what history said for the 1 h, 24 h and 7 d windows: the median move and the middle half of past moves (from the 25th to the 75th percentile). After each window, we compare that with the actual price move. "Direction" is the share of events that moved the way the median pointed; events whose median was almost zero (under 0.5%) are left out. "Inside the middle half" is the share that landed between the 25th and 75th percentiles: if history describes new events well, this should be close to 50%, not 100%. Gross price moves, before costs.